Rasmussen Pole (Poll) Friday, September 12, 2008

September 12, 2008

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Friday, September 12, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows John McCain up by three points, his largest lead since Obama wrapped up the Democratic Presidential Nomination. For most of the past several months, Obama has held a modest lead with McCain slipping ahead by a single point on just three of the past hundred days.

McCain now attracts 48% of the vote while Obama earns 45%. When “leaners” are included, it’s McCain 49%, Obama 46%. Yesterday, the candidates were tied. Tracking Poll results are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day and a FREE daily e-mail update is available.

It is unusual to find a three-point jump in one day on the tracking poll. Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. Today’s gain for McCain comes partly from a good night of polling last night and partly from the fact that a good night for Obama on Monday is no longer part of the sample.

McCain leads by fourteen points among men while Obama holds an eight point advantage among women. Obama has the edge among voters under 40 while McCain leads among older voters. Premium Members can see tracking results first and review demographic crosstabs.

Polling released earlier today shows McCain gaining ground in the traditionally blue state of Washington. Obama’s lead is down to just two percentage points. Rasmussen Markets data now shows gave McCain to be a slight favorite for victory in November. These figures are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants and currently give McCain a 53.1% chance of victory. Expectations for Obama are at 47.0%. Prior to this past week, expectations for a Democratic victory had generally been in the 60% range.

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~ by Leonidas on September 12, 2008.

2 Responses to “Rasmussen Pole (Poll) Friday, September 12, 2008”

  1. Do the poles leave any role for the likely larger than usual
    black vote this year and the large group of first time voters not yet registered. How do the pollsters account for these two.

  2. Do the pollsters make any allowance for the likely unusual large black voting turnout or the large first time voters not yet registered

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